The headlines are loud again, full of warnings about economic slowdown, falling business confidence, housing anxiety, tariff threats and more. It’s no surprise that many in Colorado are feeling jittery — tempted to make significant changes to their investments and business plans.

But the wiser move right now may be to pause. Not freeze. Not panic. Just … pause.

After weeks of examining economic reports, reviewing business filings, and speaking with executives, economists and residents across the state, a clear picture has emerged: The dominant narrative of decline, pessimism and retreat doesn’t align with what’s actually happening on the ground.

This is a moment where noise is drowning out signals, and people’s instinct to avoid risk often kicks in before we’ve had a chance to consider the facts.

Yes, confidence among Colorado business leaders has dropped. According to an index from the University of Colorado Boulder, it’s now at its third-lowest point in over two decades. But confidence is not a measure of economic reality — it’s a feeling, and feelings are not facts. Ask someone how they feel about the economy, and you’re just as likely to hear their views on the political climate.

Surveys may register anxiety, but actual behavior, of both consumers and businesses, suggests a more measured outlook.

Spending remains resilient. In the first quarter of 2025, credit card usage in Colorado rose 9.4% from a year earlier, ranking the state 16th nationwide, according to the Federal Reserve. Household finances are solid, too. Mortgage payments as a share of income are near record lows, thanks largely to widespread refinancing during the pandemic. And in the Denver metro area, home sellers received at least 99% of their listing prices in the first four months of the year, according to the Colorado Association of Realtors.

Consumers, in short, have a cushion. They also have options.

The same is true for businesses. Across sectors, companies have slimmed down, increased efficiency and developed operational models with built-in flexibility. These are not firms bracing for collapse; they are lean, adaptable and capable of making strategic shifts without panic.

This brings us to a practical but often overlooked principle: don’t confuse activity with progress. In an uncertain economy, the urge to do something can be misleading. Movement for its own sake doesn’t always lead in the right direction.

The better approach is balanced and deliberate. Don’t overreact, and don’t underreact. Don’t chase headlines or pivot every time the narrative shifts. Instead, focus on the fundamentals of your business, your household and your local economy.

Context matters. This is not 2008. It’s not even 2020. Over the past 20 years, the U.S. has endured only two major recessions with deep, lasting effects. Most other downturns have been noisy but ultimately fleeting.

Today’s conditions, while uneasy, remain fundamentally sound. Colorado banks are well-capitalized. Credit quality is high. Liquidity is strong. Businesses that qualified for loans a year ago still can, and banks — facing a lull in big-ticket deals like mergers, expansions and large-scale hiring — are often competing more aggressively for new lending opportunities.

That’s not instability. That’s discipline.

Even amid caution, optimism persists. In the first quarter of this year, new business filings in Colorado surged. People exit businesses for all sorts of reasons, but they start them for only one: They believe there’s a future worth building.

So why all the gloom? Part of it is psychological. Colorado has spent much of the past two decades as a top-performing state, leading in job growth, population gains and innovation. That high-flyer status shaped expectations.

Now the pace has slowed. Denver continues to grow, but not as rapidly. The wave of young professionals has eased, replaced in part by older adults relocating to be near children and grandchildren. It’s a different type of growth — quieter and less headline-friendly.

To some, that shift may feel like a letdown. In reality, it’s a necessary recalibration.

There’s a silver lining, especially in housing. Years of intense demand led to a boom in multifamily construction. That supply has now overtaken demand, bringing down rents across the Denver metro area. According to CBRE, average rents fell 4.1% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2025. That may be unwelcome news for some developers, but it’s an essential correction for a city where affordability had become a major barrier.

If you’re a business owner, this is the time to stay grounded. Let strategy be your compass. Adjust your tactics when needed, but don’t abandon the fundamentals. If you decide to pull back, do it based on the data that directly impacts your operation, and not just what’s being said in the broader conversation.

If you’re a resident, particularly one concerned about jobs or housing, take a wider view. Colorado’s economic strengths — its skilled workforce, its well-managed banks and its enduring culture of entrepreneurship — remain intact.

The real danger isn’t recession — it’s overreaction. It’s mistaking a slowdown for a freefall, and fear for fact. Colorado’s economy may not be sprinting anymore. But it’s still moving, still breathing, still building what’s next.

Joe Nimmons is the Colorado region president of Huntington Bank. Ian Wyatt is the director of economics at Huntington Bank.

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